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夏县美甲美睫培训技巧方法视频教程

2017年10月24日 14:01:46 | 作者:人民医管家 | 来源:新华社
Fathers will be able to share parental leave to care for babies and will have greater access to their children after couples divorce, under government plans.根据英国政府的计划,英国的父亲们将能共享产假,照看宝宝,离婚后也将获得更多陪伴孩子的机会。David Cameron and Nick Clegg promised ;unprecedented support for parents; with a new Children and Families Bill, which also contained measures to make it easier to adopt, and more support for children with special needs.英国首相大卫#8226;卡梅伦和副首相尼克#8226;克莱格承诺将颁布一项儿童与家庭新法案,“为父母们提供前所未有的持”。法案中还包含让收养孩子变得更容易、以及对有特殊需要的孩子提供更多持的举措。Parents#39; groups ;cautiously welcomed; the proposals but business leaders warned that making parental leave more flexible would impose complex ;burdens; on employers.父母群体对这一提案“有所保留地表示欢迎”,但企业主们警告说让产假变得更灵活将给雇主们带来复杂的问题,造成负担。Officials said current rules on maternity and paternity leave were ;outdated; because they presumed that women will do the ;vast majority; of caring for infants.政府官员称,当前的产假规定已经“过时了”,因为旧法规想当然地认为女性将承担照顾婴儿的“绝大部分工作”。A spokesman for the Department for Business said: ;Parents should be able to choose their childcare arrangements for themselves.;英国商业部的一位发言人说:“父母应该能自主安排谁来照顾小孩。”There were few details about how the new flexible parental leave arrangements could work. Possible options include allowing mothers to return to work and transfer up to nine months of a year#39;s parental leave to fathers.关于灵活的新产假相关安排如何运作,并未透露多少细节。也许会允许母亲回到工作岗位,并且最多能将9个月的假期转让给父亲。However, business groups criticised the move. John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, warned that companies would face ;endless; legal challenges and grievances resulting from ;gender-neutral; parental leave.但是,商业群体批评了这一举动。英国商会的总会长约翰#8226;朗沃斯警告说,公司将会因“不分性别的”产假而面临“无休止的”法律挑战和申诉。;Ministers have chosen to ignore the fact that a complex new system of shared parental leave brings fiendish complexity and huge uncertainty for employers,; he said. ;These proposals will hit business at precisely the time ministers are asking companies to create jobs and spur growth.他说:“复杂的产假共享新体系将给雇主们带来极其糟糕的复杂状况和非常大的不确定性,而部长们选择忽视这一事实。就在部长们让企业创造就业机会、刺激经济增长的同时,这些提案却会对企业造成打击。”;While most businesspeople identify with the idea of gender-neutral parental leave, they#39;ve warned time and again that the Government#39;s proposals are unwieldy, difficult to understand and fraught with potential complications.;“尽管大多数商界人士认同产假不分性别的想法,但他们已经屡次得到告诫,知道政府的提案施行起来很麻烦,难以理解,而且暗藏许多纠葛。”Simon Walker, Director General of the Institute of Directors, also warned that allowing parental leave to be shared risked adding to the burden on companies.英国董事学会的总会长西蒙#8226;沃克也警告说,让父母亲共享产假将可能增加企业的负担。;The Government should be careful not to use this as an opportunity to increase levels of leave,; he said. ;Sharing the allowance is fine, but putting heavier burdens on business in these tough times would not be a sensible move.;他说:“政府应该注意别让这个新产假方案成为人们增加休假的机会。共享产假很好,但是在这样的艰难时期让企业背上更沉重的负担不是一个明智之举。” /201205/182212

Scientists now estimate that about 280,000 people died in the flu pandemic that swept the globe in 2009 and 2010, more than 15 times the toll that had been officially recorded by laboratory tests of victims.科学家现在估计,约有28万人死于2009年和2010年那场席卷全球的流感疫情,是经实验室检测确定的官方统计死亡人数的15倍还多。The big increase in estimated deaths from the H1N1 virus isn#39;t a surprise, experts said. In any pandemic, the initial count typically is based on lab-confirmed figures that tend to significantly underestimate the true number of fatalities. In the case of the H1N1 pandemic, there were 18,500 lab-confirmed deaths, while a more comprehensive estimate suggests that anywhere from 151,700 to 575,400 people may have died. The 280,000 figure is a rough median estimate for that range.专家们说,他们对于死于H1N1病毒的估测死亡人数大幅增加并不意外。任何一种流行病的初始统计一般都以实验室确定的数据为基础,而实验室数据往往明显低于实际死亡人数。拿这场H1N1流感来说,实验室实的死亡病例为18,500例,而一项更全面的估算显示,死于该流感的人数可能在151,700人至575,400人之间。28万是这一估算的粗略中值。The new study, published in the Lancet, is the first effort to calculate the global impact of the H1N1 virus, known at the time as swine flu. The contagion was triggered by a recombination of bird, pig and human viruses and was the first flu pandemic of the 21st century. The pandemic officially ran from June 2009 to August 2010.新近发表在医学杂志《柳叶刀》(Lancet)上的一份研究报告是估测这场H1N1流感(当时也被称作“猪流感”)全球影响的首次尝试。该疫情在禽类、猪和人类的病毒基因相互结合后产生,也是21世纪的首次大流感,官方资料显示它持续的时间为2009年6月至2010年8月。H1N1 caused havoc around the world, sickening or killing hundreds of thousands of people. It prompted several national public-health emergencies and pushed countries to stockpile vast quantities of vaccine and antiviral drugs.H1N1流感在全世界造成了严重破坏,数十万人因此致病或死亡。受其影响,好几个国家启动了全国性公共卫生应急机制,很多国家不得不储备大量疫苗和抗病毒药物。The latest research confirmed earlier observations that 80% of the pandemic deaths occurred in people younger than 65 years old. About 30% of the victims in that age group were healthy with no underlying risk factors. That is a marked difference from seasonal flu, which mainly claims the elderly and the frail.这项最新研究实了先前的观察报告,即在H1N1流感的死亡病例中,有80%都不到65岁,而这一年龄段中的死者又有约30%生前身体健康,没有潜在疾患。这是与季节性流感明显不同的一点。季节性流感主要夺去的是年迈体衰者的生命。The study also found that nearly 60% of the fatalities were likely to have occurred in Southeast Asia and Africa, home to 38% of the global population. The highest mortality rates were in Africa, which suffers from a poor health infrastructure and lack of trained medical personnel.研究还发现,近60%的死亡病例可能出现在东南亚和非洲,这两地的人口占全球总人口的38%。其中,非洲的死亡率最高,那里医疗设施薄弱,缺乏训练有素的医务人员。;The number of deaths is not the only thing to look at in assessing the impact, but the huge loss of human potential,; said Fatimah Dawood, an epidemiologist and pediatrician at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, who was lead author of the paper. Because of the many younger H1N1 victims, she added, ;more than three times the number of years [of life] were lost than are lost in a seasonal flu epidemic.;美国疾病控制与预防中心(U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)的流行病学家兼儿科医生达伍德(Fatimah Dawood)说,死亡人数不是评估疫情影响时唯一要关注的因素,还要看到疫情给人类潜力造成的巨大损失。达伍德是这份研究报告的主要作者。她说,H1N1流感导致很多较年轻的人死亡,这一流感夺去的人类寿命是季节性流感所夺去人类寿命的三倍还多。 /201206/188490

The Aries mothers are born active, and therefore it makes great sense to present them something like membership of gym or billiards club etc. You can also present her a gift certificate and a bunch of tiger lilies, which certainly match the energy and vibrancy of the Aries mothers.白羊座的母亲天生精力旺盛,送给她们诸如健身或台球会员卡会是不错的选择。如果送张礼券外加一束纯洁的卷丹(百合的一种),那就更配活力四射的白羊妈妈了。 /201105/134908

Pursue your object, be it what it will, steadily and indefatigably. 不管追求什么目标,都应坚持不懈。 /201109/152878

Some of the country’s most famous investors, including Warren Buffett and John Bogle, have started to make the case that it’s time to dive back into the stock market.They are usually careful to add that they don’t know what stocks will do in the short term. Yet their basic message is clear enough: stocks are now cheap, irrational fears have been driving the market down lately, and people who buy today will be glad that they did.After a day like Tuesday, when the market rose 11 percent, it’s easy to see the merits of the argument.But there is another argument that deserves more attention than it has gotten so far. It’s the bearish argument that is based neither on fears that the country may be sliding into another depression nor on gut-level worries about the unknown. It is based on numbers and history, and it has at least as much claim on reason as the bullish argument does.It goes something like this: Stocks are truly cheap only relative to their values over the last 20 years, a period that will go down as one of the great bubbles in history. If you take a longer view, you see that the ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings is only slightly below its long-term average. And in past economic crises — during the 1930s and 1970s — stocks fell well below their long-run average before they turned around.To make matters worse, corporate earnings have now started to plunge, too. Assuming that they keep dropping, stocks would also need to fall to keep the price-earnings ratio at its current level.As stocks were soaring on Tuesday afternoon, I called James Melcher to hear a dose of fact-based bearishness. Mr. Melcher is president of Balestra Capital, a hedge fund in New York, who wrote an essay for his clients two years ago that predicted the broad outlines of the financial crisis (and then arranged Balestra’s portfolio accordingly). Like the bulls, he said that no one could know what the market would do in the short term. “But to think stocks are cheap now,” he added, “is not rational.”He went on: “In the last 20 years — and particularly in the last six or seven — you had the most massive creation of liquidity the world has ever known.” Consumers went ever deeper into debt, thanks to loose lending standards, and a shadow banking system, made up of hedge funds and investment banks, allowed Wall Street to do the same. All that debt lifted economic growth and stock returns.“It was a nice party,” Mr. Melcher said. “The problem is that all the bills are coming due at the same time.” He thinks stocks could easily fall an additional 20 percent and maybe 35 percent before hitting bottom.So who’s right — the bears or the bulls? The smartest people in both camps, like Mr. Melcher, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Bogle, have a healthy dose of humility about their own conclusions. And when you dig into their arguments, you find that they’re not quite as different as they first sound. But they are different, and it’s worth taking a minute to consider the numbers.There are any number of ways to measure the valuation of the stock market. Some examine prices relative to earnings, others are based on cash flow, a company’s underlying assets or the total value of the market. But they tell a pretty consistent story right now. Stocks, which were fabulously expensive for much of the 1990s and this decade, no longer are.My favorite measure is the one recommended by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd, in their classic 1934 textbook, “Security Analysis.” They urged investors to use a price-to-earnings ratio — stock prices divided by average annual corporate earnings — based on at least five years of earnings and, ideally, closer to 10. Corporate profits may rise or fall in any given year, but a share of stock is a claim on a company’s long-term earnings and should be evaluated as such.(Why not use a forecast of future earnings? Because they tend toward the fictional, as we’re now seeing once again.)The 10-year price-to-earnings ratio tells an incredibly consistent story over the last century. It has averaged about 16 over that time. There have been long periods when it stayed above 16 and even shot above 20, like the 1920s, 1960s and recent years. As recently as last October, when other measures suggested the market was reasonably valued, the Graham-Dodd version of the ratio was a disturbing 27. But periods in which the ratio has jumped above 20 have always been followed by steep declines and at least a decade of poor returns.By 1932, the ratio had fallen to 6. In 1982, it was only 7. Then, of course, the market began to self-correct in the other direction, and stocks took off.After Tuesday’s big rally, the ratio was just a shade below 16, or almost equal to its long-run average. This is a little difficult to swallow, I realize. Stocks are down 40 percent since last October, and every experience from the last 25 years suggests they now have to bounce back.But that’s precisely the problem. Since the 1980s, stocks have always bounced back from a loss, usually reaching a high in relatively short order. As a result, the market became enormously overvalued.As Robert Shiller, the economist who specializes in bubbles, points out, human beings tend to put too much weight on recent experiences. We think the market snapbacks of 1987 and the current decade are more meaningful and more predictive than the long slumps of the 1930s, 1940s and 1970s. Of course, anyone who made the same assumption in 1930 or 1975 — this just has to turn around soon — would have had to wait years and years until the investment paid off.Now, Mr. Buffett, Mr. Bogle and their fellow bulls know all this history, and they’re still bullish. (Though I’d be more bullish, too, if I could get the favorable terms that Mr. Buffett did. In exchange for his money and his good name, Goldman Sachs and General Electric each guaranteed him an annual return of at least 10 percent.)So on Tuesday afternoon, I also called Mr. Bogle, the legendary founder of the Vanguard Group, the investment firm whose low-cost index funds have made a lot for a lot of people.He, too, prefers the 10-year price-to-earnings ratio, he said, but he didn’t think that it necessarily had to fall to the same bargain-basement levels it reached in the 1930s and 1970s.You can certainly see why that would be the case. Investors are well aware that the market fell to irrationally low levels during past crises, and they may not allow it to become so cheap this time around.Mr. Bogle also thinks that corporate profits will rebound nicely within a couple of years and likes the fact that interest rates are low. Low rates have often — though not always — accompanied bull markets.But it was his last argument that I think is the main one for most investors to focus on. “I’m not looking for a great bull market,” he said. There are some reasons to be optimistic about stocks, he said, “and I also look at the alternative.”And, really, how attractive are the alternatives? Savings accounts and money market funds will struggle to keep pace with inflation. Bonds may, as well.Stocks, on the other hand, are paying an average dividend of about 3 percent, which is better than the interest on many savings accounts, and stocks are also almost certain to rise over the next couple of decades.If that is your time frame — decades, rather than months or years — this will probably turn out to be a perfectly good buying opportunity. In the shorter term, though, it’s a much tougher call, and it involves a lot more risk. 一些著名的投资家,包括沃伦.巴菲特,约翰.格,公开表示,现在是返回股票市场买股票的时候了.虽然他们一如往常,小心翼翼的声明,他们并不能预知股票的短期走势.然而,他们透露的基本信息是明确的:股票价格现在很便宜,非理性的恐惧导致了近期市场走低,那些现在买入股票的人必将在今后得意于他们的选择.本周二股市大涨11%,使上述观点轻易找到了论据.但另外一种观点较之以前更值得注意.这就是依然看空市场.观点不是简单建立在国家经济将滑向另一场衰退的恐惧的情感上,也不是源自于对未知的极度担忧.看空的观点同样建立在数据与历史的分析基础上,至少,它的论据并不比看多观点的少.看空者的部分看法如下:历史上看,一个巨大的经济泡沫的破裂后,需要经历20年的经济低迷期.以过去20年的数据看,股票价格确实比较便宜.但如果你在更长的历史周期上观察,你发现股价相对于公司赢利的比率只是略低于长期平均水平.回顾过去的经济危机----比如说发生于上世纪30年代和70年代的--- -那时的股价在反转前远远低于长期平均水平.情况更糟的是,公司赢利水平开始恶化,如果假设赢利持续减少,股价也必须降低以维持当前的市盈率数值.就在周二股市暴涨的时候,我致电James Melcher ,却听到了大堆有事实根据的看空理由.Melcher 先生是纽约的一家对冲基金,Balestra资本的主席,他曾经在2年前发文给他的客户,预测出金融危机可能情形(随后他又以此预测调整了Balestra的投资组合).如鼓励买股票的那些投资大家一样,他也认为没人能预测股市的短期走向.但他补充道:"现在认为股价很便宜是不明智的."James Melcher 说道:"在过去20年中----尤其是过去6,7年----我们面临流动性泛滥,消费者大量举债,宽松的借贷标准,体系中不良机制,避险基金与投资的兴起,使华尔街大大提高了负债杠杆.负债刺激了经济,提高了股票回报.""这是好的一面,"James Melcher 说,"问题在于所有的债务可能在同一时间到期."他认为股价很可能再跌20%,并且在见底前比现在下降35%.看多与看空,谁是对的? Melcher ,Bogle,还有巴菲特,都是业界中的智者,他们的结论都经过认真的分析.当你深入他们的讨论,你会发现他们之间的分析并无太多的不同.然而却提出相反的观点.这就需要我们花点时间来研究一下历史数据了.给股票估值有很多方法.有人用价格与盈利指标,有人用现金流折现,还有人考虑公司隐藏或低估的资产,或是公司市值.但现在使用那些方法只能如以前一样描述动人的故事.股价再不可能象上世纪九十年代与最近十年所经历的一样,不切实际的高高在上.我个人喜好的一个衡量指标是,本杰明.格雷翰姆和戴维.多德在他们经典的1934年出版的教材lt;lt;券分析gt;gt;里介绍的市盈率- ---股票价格除以过去5年的公司盈利平均值,计算的市盈率如果接近10,则是比较合理的.公司的利润水平在某些年份可能升也可能降,但股权是对公司长期盈利的分配要求,因此应该以平均的盈利水平来评估股价高低与否.(为什么不用预测的盈利数据计算市盈率?因为我们发现,那将可能导致数字的编造游戏)以10年为周期的市盈率难以置信的揭示了一个世纪来的股市长期走势.在上世纪,市盈率的平均值是16,但有很长一段时间数值超过了16,甚至短时间内还大于20,如在上世纪的20年代,60年代和最近几年.就在去年10月,其他指标还显示股市还处于合理估值状态,格雷翰姆--多德指标却达到了令人不安的 27.如果一段时间内,市盈率超过20,伴随而来的情况是股市急剧回调,同时,至少在以后的10年内,投资回报都很差.长期市盈率在1932年回落到6,1982年达到7,这之后,股市开始自我修正,股价反转拉升.就在本周二的暴涨后,市盈率率低于长期均值16.这有点难以相信.股市从去年10月算起,已经下跌了40%,25年以来的经验也提示应该发生反弹了.但问题在于.自1980年以来,股价经常在略微下跌后就开始反弹,短期下跌后又创下新高,于是,整个市场已经严重高估了.就如专门研究泡沫经济的经济学家罗伯特.席勒所言,人类更倾向于依据近期的经验来做决策.于是我们很容易预测股市就如1987年或最近的10年中发生的一样,很快就发生反弹,而不是类似二十世纪30,40,70年代经历漫长的低迷.当然,那些在1930年或1975年里认为股市即将转好的人,不得不等待很长的时间才让投资回本.巴菲特与格先生与其他唱多者都了解券历史,但是他们还是看好后市.(如果我有巴菲特那样的优惠的交易条件,我也许比他们更愿意唱多市场.在高盛与通用电器的交易中,为了获得资金与巴菲特个人良好的声誉,两家公司都承诺每年给巴菲特至少10%的回报.)于是我在周二下午电话询问富有传奇色的先锋集团的创始人格先生.先锋集团是一家投资公司,它掌管的低成本指数基金曾为很多人赚取大量财富.格先生说,他同样偏好于10年期的市盈率估值,但他不认为,指标要回到1930年或1970年的低值水平才开始购买股票.你肯定能理解为何有这样的结论.投资者都充分意识到在以前的金融危机中市场曾跌到非理性的低价水平,于是在这次危机中他们可能不会让类似的低价再次出现.格先生同时认为,企业盈利水平在今后几年中很快得到恢复,他还注意到当前的利率水平很低.低利率经常伴随着牛市的出现----尽管不一定每次都是如此.另外,要考虑其他的投资选择是否真正具有吸引力?储蓄,货币基金,以及债券,都必须要考虑抵消通涨的影响.而投资股票,平均能获得大约3%的股息率,超过了储蓄存款利率.而且就以后的几十年来说,股价的增长几乎是确定的.如果你的投资期限放长到十年几十年,而不是几个月或几年,那么,现在可能是极好的买入机会.然而就短期而言,现在选择买入,结果可能很糟糕,同时还面临更大的投资风险. /200811/55020

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