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2018年02月23日 14:13:06 | 作者:专家分析 | 来源:新华社
Many years ago it became obvious to some of us that online retail would continue to grow at a much faster pace than brick and mortar stores. This appeared to be less obvious to traditional retailers until more recently. In 2001, I suggested to some colleagues that Wal-Mart WMT 0.29% should acquire Amazon to gain an edge in online retail (Amazon stock was about a share at the time). This idea was scoffed at. I bought Amazon AMZN 0.07% stock but, clearly, didn’t maximize my execution as I sold it within 18 months for 3 times the return (it’s now 7). I’m guessing there were also some prescient investment bankers who received a similar response after suggesting that Wal-Mart buy Amazon. Who knows what the world would be like today had that occurred, as Amazon could easily have been derailed under Wal-Mart management.多年前,一些有识之士就确信,电商的增长速度将比实体店快得多。在传统零售商看来,这一点并没有那么显而易见——直至最近。2001年,我曾对一些同事表示,沃尔玛公司(Wal-Mart)应该收购亚马逊公司(Amazon),以获得在线零售的优势(当时亚马逊的股价约为5美元)。但这个提法却遭到了嘲笑。我当时买了亚马逊的股票,但很显然并没有赚到最大回报,因为不到18个月我就以3倍价格卖掉了(现在股价是317美元)。我想,当时有些富有预见的投资家在提出沃尔玛应该收购亚马逊这样的建议后,也受到了类似嘲讽。如果当时这个建议成真,就不知道今天的世界会是什么模样,因为沃尔玛治下的亚马逊是很容易脱轨的。Now, traditional retailers are under extraordinary pressure as online has matured and is expected to exceed 0 billion in U.S. sales in 2014. As online retail has claimed a larger and larger share of the overall retail business, it has sucked the air out of brick and mortar stores, and offline growth has come to a virtual standstill. With this emergence, many traditional players have finally seen the light. Wal-Mart has announced it will be increasing its online investments by a substantial amount in an effort to try to close the gap against Amazon. There has been much press about the acceleration in Wal-Mart’s online sales, and as a result, there are some who will mistakenly look at the relative growth numbers of Amazon vs. Wal-Mart’s online store and start to believe Wal-Mart is closing the gap. This could not be further from the truth as it is deceptive to compare larger numbers to smaller ones.而如今,羽翼丰满的电商正在让传统零售商承受巨大压力。2014年,美国的在线零售额有望超过3000亿美元。随着电商在零售业所占的份额越来越大,它已抢走了实体店的人气,线下增长实际上已停滞不前。在这种情势下,很多传统零售商终于有点开窍了。沃尔玛日前宣布该公司将大幅增加在线投资,以努力缩小与亚马逊的差距。有不少媒体报道称,沃尔玛的在线销售额正在快速增长。结果,有些人就会误读亚马逊与沃尔玛网店的相对增速,并开始相信沃尔玛正在缩小差距。但这实际上与事实相去甚远,因为单纯将大数字与较小数字相比是有一定欺骗性的。One reason to believe that Wal-Mart is catching up is because in the current fiscal year, the retailer is expected to grow online sales by 30% while is Amazon “only” expected to post a 20% gain, according to consensus Wall Street estimates. There are four problems with focusing on this number:相信沃尔玛正迎头赶上的一大理由是,据华尔街的一致估算,沃尔玛本财年网店销售额预计增长30%,而亚马逊则“仅”增长20%。光看这一数字存在如下四大问题:1. A portion of Wal-Mart’s growth is deceptive because it partly consists of shifting sales away from its physical stores to its online store.1.沃尔玛的增长额中有一部分颇具欺骗性,因为它部分是由其实体店转移到网店的销售额构成的。2. Wal-Mart’s growth comes off of a much smaller number. In the chart below we look at the actual dollar growth of Amazon and Wal-Mart last year. While Wal-Mart is expected to increase online sales by a very respectable billion, Amazon’s gain of .5 billion is nearly 5 times Wal-Mart’s dollar gain, and the gain alone will exceed Wal-Mart’s total online sales.2.沃尔玛的增速基于一个小得多的数字。下图显示的是亚马逊和沃尔玛去年销售收入的实际增长额。尽管沃尔玛有望增长30亿美元(这已令人肃然起敬了),但亚马逊145亿美元的增长额是沃尔玛的近5倍,仅这一数字就远超沃尔玛的整体在线销售额。3. The shift of overall retail toward online from physical stores has pressured Wal-Mart’s growth in its brick and mortar operations. Last year, Wal-Mart’s overall US revenue growth, including online sales, was 1.6% with same store sales actually declining slightly.3.零售业整体从实体店向网上转移对沃尔玛实体店的经营构成了极大压力。去年沃尔玛在美国的总销售额增长率是1.6%,而同店销售额实际上是有所下降的。4. Amazon sales are recognized on a net basis. Since an increasing proportion of the sales are net dollars (at very high margins) received for selling other merchants products, the amount of sales that it controls far exceeds its reported revenue. They also report what amount of their services revenue is from the combination of Amazon Web Services credit card and advertising. If we assume that the remainder is their share of third-party merchant revenue (also known as Amazon Marketplace) (which is reported on a net basis) then we are able to calculate gross third-party merchant revenue by year. The conversion of that revenue to products sold by third-party merchants is a matter of projecting what Amazon’s average referral fee is for the marketplace. If we assume that Amazon receives 15%, on average, of total marketplace sales then we are able to calculate the total of all product revenue generated by Amazon. In 2013, this would be 5 billion rather than the billion reported by them as total revenue. And this total would be up 28% rather than the reported growth of 22% for the company.4.亚马逊的销售额是按照净值确认的。由于这些销售额中日益增长的部分为销售其他商家产品获得的净收入(利润极高),因此该公司实际掌控的销售额远超其所报收入。亚马逊还披露了该公司从亚马逊网络务(Amazon Web Services)信用卡和广告中获取的务收入。如果我们假定剩余销售额是亚马逊从第三方商家——也被称为亚马逊市场(Amazon Marketplace)——收入中获得的分成(也是按净值确认),那就可以计算出第三方商家每年的总收入。将这部分收入换算为第三方商家销售的商品,就可算出亚马逊从这个市场中所获的平均推介费。假定亚马逊收取的平均推介费为该市场总销售额的15%,那就可以算出亚马逊催生的所有产品销售总收入。2013年,这个数字就是1250亿美元,而不是该公司自己报告的740亿美元总收入。这一总数还意味着公司的销售额增长率是28%,而不是公司报称的22%。Amazon has been secretive about its third-party retailer business but does report the breakout of total services revenue from direct product revenue.亚马逊一直对其第三方零售业务讳莫如深,但却报告称,从直接产品收入中获取的总务收入大幅增长。Given the fact that Amazon is adding sales (in dollars) at 5 times the rate of Wal-Mart online, the question is whether it has enough inherent advantages to continue to significantly outpace Wal-Mart. The answer is yes. The obvious reasons include: a superior online brand, a multiple of customers that are regulars, more knowledge of how to use data, etc .. While these are not easy to replicate, if at all, an even more important issue is whether Wal-Mart’s distribution network could rival Amazon’s?既然亚马逊销售额(以美元计)增长速度是沃尔玛电商的五倍,问题就在于它是否有足够的内在优势继续大幅领先沃尔玛。是毫无疑问的。显而易见的理由有:卓越的电商品牌,大量的回头客,更精通数据应用,等等。尽管这些因素都很难复制,但更重要的问题是,沃尔玛的销售网络是否能胜过亚马逊的呢?Amazon currently has 125 active warehouses that serve end-customers around the world while Wal-Mart only has a handful. This may seem surprising for the world’s largest retailer but keep in mind that a distribution center for resupplying stores with inventory is a completely different animal than a warehouse for shipping directly to end customers. Recently, Wal-Mart has announced plans to build a 1.2 million square-foot warehouse in Indiana dedicated to e-commerce. Wal-Mart currently uses its 4,200 existing retail stores as a nexus for shipping to end customers. Approximately 20% of online orders are now shipped from a store. This strategy is likely much less efficient and could prove quite costly relative to Amazon warehouse that have been optimized solely for online orders.目前亚马逊有125个在用库房为全球终端用户务,而沃尔玛却只有不多的几个。这似乎有点让人吃惊,因为沃尔玛毕竟是全球最大的零售商。但要知道,为实体店补充存货所用的分销中心,和直接运往终端用户所用的库房是完全不同的两种东西。最近沃尔玛宣布,该公司计划在印第安纳州修建120万平方英尺,专供电子商务使用的库房。沃尔玛目前将其现有的4200家零售店作为向终端用户发货的枢纽。约有20%的在线订单是从这些店发货的。相对亚马逊的库房而言,这种战略的效率可能要低得多,而且成本可能要高得多。I’ve chosen to compare Amazon to Walmart, the retailer with the greatest capacity to compete with them. Others will be even harder pressed to hold off online retailers.本文我选了亚马逊与沃尔玛进行对比,沃尔玛毕竟是最有实力和电商竞争的零售商。其他零售商当然更难抵御电商的攻势。 /201410/338834A NEW contraceptive pill that lets women go four months without a period will go on sale this week.一种可以让女性四个月只来一次月经的新型避药将于本周上市发售。Yaz Flex comes in packs of 120 pills and women who use it continuously will have three periods a year.这种名为Yaz Flex的药品每盒有120片,长期用的女性一年只会来三次月经。The pill comes with a palm-sized dispenser that records usage, notices when a tablet has been missed and provides an alert that alternative contraception must be used.盛装药片的盒子仅有手掌大小,可以记录使用量,如果有漏则会马上发出警报,通知使用者必须利用其它避方式。The Clyk digital tablet dispenser can be programmed to sound a daily alarm to remind women to take the pill.这种名为Clyk的药剂数字分发盒可以根据使用者的设置,每天自动报警提醒药。More than 80 per cent of women admit to forgetting to take their contraceptive pill at some stage and 31 per cent forget it once a month, according to a survey funded by Bayer, the drug company that makes Yaz.根据生产这种新型避药的拜尔药物公司资助的调查,超过80%的女性承认曾经漏避药,31%的女性一个月就会漏一次。Alex Trevor, who has used the new pill for a week, loves the new digital dispenser which ;keeps me on track;. ;There have been times when I#39;ve forgotten to take the pill in the past,; she said.亚历克斯-特雷弗已经用这种新药一周了,她很喜欢使用新型的数字药剂分发盒,这种分发盒可以使她的药更有规律。她说:“我以前经常忘记药。”Yaz Flex is a new version of the existing monthly contraceptive pill Yaz and both contain a combination of hormones that over time help reduce acne. Australia is the launch market for the pill, which is made in Germany.Yaz Flex的前身是每月用的避药Yaz,两种药物都含有一种复合激素,长期用时可以帮助治疗青春痘。Yaz Flex由德国制造,但在澳大利亚首先发售。Associate professor and gynaecologist Dr Rod Baber said many medical studies had found skipping periods was safe and it could be useful for women who have heavy periods, their periods are painful or they get migraine associated with menstruation.副教授兼妇科学家罗德-巴伯尔说,诸多药物研究发现,减少月经次数很安全,对月经量大的女性来说尤其有用,她们经常痛经,或者患上经期偏头痛。Ms Trevor, whose mother Dr Christine Read works for Bayer, said she had skipped periods on her old pill but Yaz Flex with its digital dispenser made it easier to keep track of where she was in her cycle.特雷弗说,她用之前的避药也可以减少月经次数,但Yaz Flex配有药剂数字分发盒,这让她能很清楚自己的周期。她的母亲克里斯汀-里德就在拜尔公司工作。Common side effects of Yaz Flex include nausea, depression, headache, breast pain and unscheduled bleeding.Yaz Flex的常见副作用包括恶心、抑郁、头痛、胸痛、以及不定期出血。Women using it also face twice the risk of a blood clot as women using older versions of oral contraceptives, but Dr Baber said the risk was still low - 2.7 in 100,000 women. In pregnancy the risk of a blood clot is six in 100,000.而且与其他用旧式避药的女性相比,用Yaz Flex的女性患上血栓的风险是其两倍。但巴伯尔士说,这种风险(10万分之2.7)仍然很低。妇患上血栓的风险是10万分之六。 /201209/201906

Some industrial designers come up with interesting mouse designs, many of them looking eccentric or extravagant. If you’re a little bit conservative you’ll say “oh, maybe, actually no” but if you’re into gadgets and innovations I’m sure your brain would shout “me likey”. A few of these mice can be actually bought from their manufacturer’s sites or even Amazon. The ones that don’t have a link in the title are most probably concepts and you are allowed to use them in your dreams… or maybe in the near future. 一些工业设计师想出了一些很有趣的鼠标设计,大多数鼠标或是古灵精怪,或是大胆前卫。如果你有点保守的话,你会叫道“哦,可能,真的不行吧”,但是如果你对小玩意和新事物兴趣颇浓的话,那我打包票你的脑子里只有一个念头“我喜欢”。这些鼠标中的一些确实能从它们的生产商、甚至亚马逊那儿买到。在标题下没有链接的那些则很可能是概念鼠标,你只好在梦里用它们了……或者就在不久的将来。Eclipse TouchmouseFeaturing elegant and sophisticated brushed-aluminum finish, the eclipse touchmouse sports an advanced feature set and streamlined ergonomics. Designed for home, office or on the go, the touchmouse delivers both style and quality.Three button operation, 1600dpi laser technology and Bluetooth 2.0 connectivity ensure that the eclipse touchmouse can cope with a multitude of home and office tasks.Eclipse Touchmouse(Eclipse触控式鼠标)这款Eclipse触控式鼠标的特色在于其优雅精致的拉丝铝抛光,它的高级功能集与流线型人体工程学引人注目。该款鼠标为家庭、办公或移动所设计,既造型独特又品质出众。三键操作,1600dpi与蓝牙2.0连接确保了该款鼠标能胜任大多数家庭和办公工作。 /201010/115576

Japanese researchers on Friday unveiled a population clock that showed the nation#39;s people could theoretically become extinct in 1,000 years because of declining birth rates.日本研究人员上周五发布了一个人口倒计时钟,该时钟显示,由于出生率持续下降,理论上日本人将于1000年后灭绝。Academics in the northern city of Sendai said that Japan#39;s population of children aged up to 14, which now stands at 16.6 million, is shrinking at the rate of one every 100 seconds.日本北部城市仙台的学者称,日本14岁以下儿童人口目前为1660万,正在以每100秒1个的速度减少。Their extrapolations pointed to a Japan with no children left within a millennium.学者们的推断指出,日本在1000年后将没有儿童。;If the rate of decline continues, we will be able to celebrate the Children#39;s Day public holiday on May 5, 3011 as there will be one child,; said Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University.日本东北大学的经济学教授吉田浩说:“按这种下降速度,到3011年5月5日我们将剩下一名儿童,仍能庆祝儿童节。”;But 100 seconds later there will be no children left,; he said. ;The overall trend is towards extinction, which started in 1975 when Japan#39;s fertility rate fell below two.;他说:“但再过100秒,日本将没有儿童。自从1975年日本生育率降到每名育龄妇女两个孩子以内,走向灭绝便成了总体趋势。”Yoshida said he created the population clock to encourage ;urgent; discussion of the issue.吉田说他创立这一人口钟是为了鼓励人们“紧急”开展关于这一问题的讨论。Another study released earlier this year showed Japan#39;s population is expected to shrink to a third of its current 127.7 million over the next century.今年早些时候发布的另一项研究显示,下世纪日本人口将缩减到现有人口(1.277亿)的三分之一。Government projections show the birth rate will hit just 1.35 children per woman within 50 years, well below the replacement rate.政府预测显示,50年内日本生育率将降至每名妇女1.35个小孩,大大低于人口替换率。Meanwhile, life expectancy -- aly one of the highest in the world -- is expected to rise from 86.39 years in 2010 to 90.93 years in 2060 for women and from 79.64 years to 84.19 years for men.与此同时,日本已然是世界第一的人口寿命将进一步延长。日本女性的平均寿命将从2010年的86.39岁增加到2060年的90.93岁,而日本男性的寿命将从2010年的79.64岁增加到2060年的84.19岁。More than 20 percent of Japan#39;s people are aged 65 or over, one of the highest proportions of elderly in the world.超过20%的日本人年龄在65岁以上(含65岁),是世界上老年人口比例最大的国家之一。Japan has very little immigration and any suggestion of opening the borders to young workers who could help plug the population gap provokes strong reactions among the public.日本的外来移民很少,向外国年轻工人开放边境能帮助填补人口差距,但这种提议总是会激起民众的强烈反应。The greying population is a headache for policymakers who are faced with trying to ensure an ever-dwindling pool of workers can pay for a growing number of pensioners.老龄化人口是让决策者头疼的事情,他们面临着如何用不断减少的劳动人口付的养老金来养活越来越多的退休老人的问题。But for some Japanese companies the inverting of the traditional ageing pyramid provides commercial opportunities.然而,对一些日本公司而言,传统老龄化金字塔结构的这一倒转提供了商机。Unicharm said Friday that sales of its adult diapers had ;slightly surpassed; those for babies in the financial year to March, for the first time since the company moved into the seniors market.日本尤妮佳公司上周五称,在截止到三月的上一个财政年度中,成人尿布的销量“略微超过了”婴儿尿布的销量,这在该公司进军老年人市场后是首次。 /201205/182797

For those keeping score of women on the Fortune 500, here’s some good news: The definitive ranking of America’s biggest companies boasts some 24 female CEOs, up from 20 a year ago, and more than at any point since Fortune started compiling executive gender in 1998.长期跟踪《财富》美国500强(Fortune 500)企业女性发展情况的人们现在迎来了个好消息:最终榜单上全美最大公司中共有24位女性首席执行官,而一年前仅有20位。自《财富》杂志(Fortune)从1998年起开始收集整理不同性别高管的情况以来,这个数字创下了有史以来的最高纪录。The “meh” news: That still represents a small percentage —4.8% to be exact — of the overall CEOs on the list. While just one woman led a Fortune 500 company in 1998, that number slowly rose to 15 in 2009 before declining to 12 women by 2011.而比较不给力的一点是:这个数字占上榜首席执行官总人数的比例仍然很小——准确地说就是4.8%。1998年《财富》美国500强中仅有一位女性掌门人,2009年这个数字慢慢爬升到15位,2011年又掉到了12位。This year’s list comes with six new women CEOs, two of whom will be defined by how the deal with huge corporate crises in their first year as CEO. Mary Barra became the first woman to lead a major automotive company in January when she took over as chief executive of General Motors. Barra is currently navigating GM through a recall of millions of vehicles linked to a 2005 faulty ignition problem. Lynn Good, the CEO of Duke Energy, became CEO last August and is now dealing with one of Duke’s biggest environment crises in the company 100-year history. More than 30,000 tons of Duke’s coal waste accidentally spilled into a North Carolina river in February.今年的榜单上共有6位新任女掌门,其中有2位因其在出任首席执行官的第一年就面对公司的重大危机力挽狂澜而引人瞩目。今年1月当玛丽o巴拉出任通用汽车公司(General Motors)的首席执行官后,她就成为了历史上第一位领导大型汽车公司的女性。现在,巴拉正带领通用汽车全力应对一次上百万规模的召回,这次召回是因2005年遗留的点火装置隐患而引起的。林恩o古德是杜克能源公司(Duke Energy)的首席执行官。她去年8月上任,现在正在着手解决杜克公司百年历史上的最大环境危机。今年2月,杜克能源的三万多吨煤矸石被不慎倒进北卡罗来纳州的一条河流。Engineering company CH2M Hill announced in January that company-insider Jacqueline Himan would be taking over the CEO spot and convenience retailer CST Brands also announced that month Kimberly Bowers would become CEO. Tobacco giant Reynolds American brought back former CEO Susan Cameron to lead the company effective May 1st and just last month Ross Stores announced Chief Merchandising Officer Barbara Rentler would take over the C-suite.今年1月,工程公司西图公司(CH2M Hill)宣布来自公司内部的杰奎琳o海曼出任首席执行官,同时汽油零售商CST Brands公司也宣布金柏莉o鲍尔斯出任首席执行官。烟草巨头雷诺美国公司(Reynolds American)请回了前任首席执行官苏珊o卡梅隆从5月1日开始重新领导公司,而上个月罗斯百货公司(Ross Stores)宣布首席商品官芭芭拉o兰特尔将出任首席执行官一职。The 2014 Fortune 500 CEO list is also noticeable lacking one high-powered female tech executive. This year, for the first time in nine years, Yahoo is not a part of the Fortune 500 and CEO Marissa Mayer has fallen off the list after making her debut last year.另外2014年《财富》美国500强‘首席执行官”名单中引人注意的一点是,科技公司的女性高管缺席。由于雅虎公司(Yahoo)九年来首次跌出《财富》美国500强排行榜,公司首席执行官玛丽莎o梅耶尔继去年履新后今年也缺席了本榜单。And while women make up a small percentage of the Fortune 500 CEOs, American companies are slightly more balanced than those of some of our peer economies. Despite droves of policies in place to support bringing women into executive leadership, only 3% of Scandinavia’s largest firms are led by women. Stay tuned for Fortune’s upcoming Global 500 to see how women CEOs fare on the ranking of the world’s largest companies.尽管女性在《财富》美国500强首席执行官队伍中占比较小,但比起一些同处一个阵营的经济体来说,美国公司的高管性别比例还是要均衡一些。北欧四国尽管出台了一系列持将女性推到首席执行官位置的政策,但这些国家的大公司却仅有3%的高管是女性。请继续关注即将出炉的《财富》世界全球500强榜单,看看全球大公司中女性首席执行官的情况如何。Here is the full list of Fortune 500 women CEOs:“财富500强”全部女性首席执行官如下:1. Mary Barra – General Motors (No. 7 on the 2014 Fortune 500)玛丽·芭拉——通用汽车公司(“2014财富500强”第7位)2. Margaret Whitman – Hewlett-Packard (No. 17)玛格丽特·惠特曼——惠普公司(第17位)3. Virginia Rometty – International Business Machines (No. 23)弗吉尼亚·罗曼提——IBM公司(第23位)4. Patricia Woertz – Archer Daniels Midland (No. 27)帕特丽霞·伍尔丝——阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰公司(第27位)5. IndraNooyi – Pepsi Co (No. 43)英德拉·诺伊——百事公司(第43位)6. MarillynHewson – Lockheed Martin (No. 59)玛丽莲·休森——洛克希德马丁公司(第59位)7. Ellen Kullman – DuPont (No. 86)艾伦·库尔曼——杜邦公司(第86位)8. Irene Rosenfeld – Mondelez International (No. 89)艾琳·罗森菲尔德——蒙德雷兹国际食品公司(第89位)9. PhebeNovakovic – General Dynamics (No. 99)菲比·诺瓦科维奇——通用动力公司(第99位)10. Carol Meyrowitz – TJX (No. 108)卡罗尔·梅罗维茨——TJX公司(第108位)11 Lynn Good – Duke Energy (No. 123)林恩·古德——杜克能源公司(第123位)12. Ursula Burns – Xerox (No. 137)乌苏拉·伯恩斯——施乐公司(第137位)13. Deanna Mulligan – Guardian Line Ins. Co. of America (No. 245)狄安娜·玛丽甘——Guardian Line Ins. Co. of America公司(第245位)14. Kimberly Bowers – CST Brands (No. 266)金伯莉·鲍尔斯——CST Brands公司(第266位)15. Debra Reed – Sempra Energy (No. 267)黛布拉·里德——桑普拉能源公司(第267位)16. Barbara Rentler – Ross Stores (No. 277)芭芭拉·兰特尔——罗斯百货公司(第277位)17. Sherylin McCoy – Avon Products (No. 282)雪琳·麦考伊——雅芳公司(第282位)18. Denise Morrison – Campbell Soup (No. 315)德尼丝·莫里森——金宝汤公司(第315位)19. Susan Cameron – Reynolds American (No. 329)苏珊·卡梅伦——雷诺美国烟草公司(第329位)20. Heather Bresch – Mylan (No. 377)希瑟·布莱什——迈兰公司(第377位)21. Ilene Gordon – Ingredion (No. 412)艾琳·高登——宜瑞安公司(第412位)22. Jacqueline Himan – CH2M Hill (No. 437)杰奎琳·海曼——西图公司(第437位)23. Kathleen Mazzarella – Graybar Electric (No. 449)凯思琳·马扎雷拉——葛雷巴电气公司(第449位)24. GraciaMartore – Gannett (No. 481)格蕾西亚·马特罗——甘乃特公司(第481位) /201406/305347

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