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Three days after Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov was slain by at least four bullets in the back outside the walls of the Kremlin, there is no trace of his killer.在俄罗斯反对派政治人物鲍里斯#8226;涅姆佐夫(Boris Nemtsov)遇害三天之后,杀害他的杀手依然毫无线索。三天前,涅姆佐夫在克里姆林宫墙外,被至颗子弹从背后杀。But politicians, activists and observers critical of President Vladimir Putin agree that, whoever pulled the trigger, Nemtsov fell victim to a climate of hate and fear that the authorities have fanned in Russia since the revolution in Ukraine and Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.不过,对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)持批评态度的政客、社会活动人士和观察家都认同这样一种看法:不论谁是杀害涅姆佐夫的凶手,涅姆佐夫都是乌克兰危机以来俄罗斯仇恨与恐惧氛围的牺牲品,而这种氛围正是俄罗斯当局在俄罗斯国内煽动起来的。乌克兰危机的发端,则始于乌克兰革命和俄罗斯对克里米亚的吞并。Mr Putin’s opponents had been under growing pressure since his return to the presidential office in 2012. But after Ukraine’s political upheavals began, this pressure turned into open threats.012年普京再次当选总统以来,普京的反对者遭遇的压力越来越大。而在乌克兰开始出现政治动荡以后,这种压力变成了公然威胁。Vladimir Ryzhkov, a long-time friend of Nemtsov and co-chairman of his political party, said the state and state-run media had both presented liberal opposition figures as traitors and enemies and implicitly encouraged violence against them.涅姆佐夫长期密友、其所在政党的联席主席弗拉基米#8226;雷日科夫(Vladimir Ryzhkov)表示,俄罗斯政府和官方媒体都把自由主义反对派人士说成是叛国者和敌人,并隐性鼓励针对他们的暴力活动。“In Soviet times, the state had a monopoly of force,he said. “Now we don’t have such a monopoly. We have violence from the top, threats from the top, and an amazing threat from the bottom. We have all kinds of nationalist groups, radicals, military veterans, sports clubs. And any group could use violence against those who they think are enemies of Russia.”他说:“在苏联时代,政府垄断了武力。如今,这种垄断不复存在了。我们面临的是来自高层的暴力、来自高层的威胁、以及来自底层的惊人威胁。我们拥有各种民族主义团体、激进分子、老兵、俱乐部。任何组织都可能对那些认为是俄罗斯敌人的人使用暴力。”A year ago, Andrei Kovalenko, a Russian nationalist youth leader, told a crowd of screaming supporters that if Mr Putin did not deal with a “Fifth Columnof liberal opposition figures, things would end, as in 1917, with the downfall of the regime.一年前,俄罗斯民族主义青年领袖安德#8226;科瓦连科(Andrei Kovalenko)曾向尖叫着的持者表示,如果普京不处理自由主义反对派组成的“第五纵队”,俄罗斯政权会917年那样以垮台告终。“Vladimir Vladimirovich! Just give an order!he shouted. “We can’t wait for your ‘Fass!’he shouted, using a German-language command for dogs to attack.“弗拉基米尔#8226;弗拉基米罗维奇!(Vladimir Vladimirovich,此处使用了普京的父名,表示对他的尊重——译者注)只要下达一个指令就好!”他高声叫喊,“我们已经等不及您说出‘Fass!’”这是德语中命令去攻击他人的词语。Mr Kovalenko is a disciple of Alexander Dugin, a nationalist ideologue long seen as a marginal figure but who trumpeted after the Crimea annexation that Mr Putin was now following his line.科瓦连科是倡导民族主义思想的理论家亚历山大#8226;杜金(Alexander Dugin)的追随者。杜金长期以来都被视为边缘人物,但在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后,杜金曾鼓吹称普京现在奉行着他的路线。The president encouraged such notions by echoing some of the extremistslanguage. In a speech celebrating the Crimean annexation last March, he included a warning against those who might oppose it, calling them “national traitorsand a “fifth column普京曾在讲话中采用了部分极端分子的措辞,从而纵容了这种观念。去月,普京发表了一篇庆祝吞并克里米亚的演讲,向可能反对这一做法的人发出了警告,称他们是“国家叛徒”和“第五纵队”。Meanwhile, ideologues bashing the liberal opposition have become fixtures on state media, still the main source of information for most of the Russian population. A group of prominent television and radio managers set the tone with news presentations full of insinuations. Dmitry Kiselyov, head of the state news group Rossiya Segodnya, whom the EU put on its sanctions list last year, is the most prominent.同时,各种理论家对自由主义反对派的猛烈抨击,已成为官方媒体的固定节目。目前,俄罗斯官方媒体仍是大多数俄罗斯人获取信息的主要来源。多家著名电视台和电台主管则用充满逢迎和影射的新闻报道左右了舆论的走向。国家新闻社“今日俄罗斯Rossiya Segodnya)社长德米特里#8226;基谢廖夫(Dmitry Kiselyov)是其中最突出的一个,去年他被欧盟(EU)列入制裁名单。Mr Putin’s regime has also taken the struggle to the streets. In January, a smattering of nationalist groupings, veteransassociations and lawmakers from the pro-presidential ed Russia party set up what they called a “social movementcalled Anti-Maidan.普京当局还将争斗引上了街头。今月,亲普京的统一俄罗斯党(ed Russia)党内的少数民族主义团体、老兵协会和议员,成立了一个名为“反广场革命”组织的所谓“社会运动”。A week before Nemtsov’s death, the association staged a large-scale march with government support through Moscow. Participants pledged to fight the kind of democratic change that occurred in Ukraine, western values and anyone who would stand up for them in Russia.在涅姆佐夫遇害前一周,该组织在全莫斯科发起了一场得到政府持的大规模游行。参与者发誓要与乌克兰那种民主变革、与西方价值、以及与俄罗斯国内任何拥护以上两者的人作斗争。“People were openly calling from the stage to ‘take care ofthe liberals,said Mikhail Kasyanov, a former prime minister under Mr Putin and another close associate of Nemtsov. “There were even signs saying, ‘Let’s destroy the Fifth Column”“在台上,人们公开叫嚷着要‘收拾’自由主义者,”涅姆佐夫的另一位密友、曾在普京政府中担任总理的米哈伊#8226;卡西亚诺Mikhail Kasyanov)说,“甚至还有标语上写着,‘让我们打垮第五纵队’。”Marching in the front row was Alexander Zaldostanov, leader of the Night Wolves bikersgroup, which observers say has styled itself into crusaders for Russian greatness and Russian values.走在游行队伍前列的是亚历山大#8226;扎多斯塔诺夫(Alexander Zaldostanov)。他是托车俱乐部“夜狼Night Wolves)的领袖。观察家称,该俱乐部已将自身标榜成为俄罗斯的强盛和俄罗斯价值奔走的圣战组织。Mr Kasyanov said opposition leaders had faced lower-level harassment since the mid-2000s, and he and many others were followed by members of Nashi, the pro-Kremlin youth group created after the 2004 Orange revolution in Ukraine. But the Anti-Maidan movement was much more sinister.卡西亚诺夫表示,在本世纪头十年中期,反对派领袖们开始面临更为下作的滋扰。他和其他许多人曾被持俄政府的青年团体“纳什”(Nashi, 俄语意为“我们”)的成员跟踪。该团体成立004年乌克兰“橙色革命Orange Revolution)之后。而相比之下,“反广场革命”运动要比“纳什”邪恶得多。Ksenia Sobchak, the socialite and journalist who has floated between the establishment close to Mr Putin and the opposition, was one of the first to link this environment to Nemtsov’s death.游走于当权的普京拥护者和反对派之间的记者和社会名流塞梅#8226;索布恰克(Ksenia Sobchak),是率先将这种氛围与涅姆佐夫之死联系起来的人之一。The Kremlin’s efforts to defeat the 2012 protest movement against Mr Putin through an ideological war had created a “chaos of hate,she wrote on her blog. She added that the president had “built an infernal terminator over which he has lost control.”她在客里写道:克里姆林宫试图通过意识形态之战挫012年反普京抗议活动的举动,造成了一种“仇恨乱局”。她还补充道,普京“制造了一个他已经控制不了的可怕的终结者”。Political analysts are not surprised. Some argue that the Anti-Maidan movement is a logical continuation of the regime’s earlier attempts to steer public sentiment through groups such as Nashi.对此,政治分析人士并不感到意外。有些人说,普京当局之前就试图通过纳什这类组织引导公众情绪,反广场革命运动是对这种努力的自然延续。Andrei Kolesnikov, from the Carnegie Moscow Center, said: “The atmosphere we have now is artificial in the sense that it has been created by the propaganda. But it is also natural in the sense that people ily accept it.”莫斯科卡内基中Moscow Carnegie Center)的安德烈#8226;科列斯尼科夫(Andrei Kolesnikov)说:“目前这种氛围是通过宣传手段营造的,从此种意义上说,这种氛围是人为的。但从,人们对此欣然接受,又表明它是自然而然产生的。”Mr Kolesnikov said the role such groups played in Russian politics and society had become similar to groupings used by the Nazi regime to intimidate and persecute opponents in the early years of its rule.科列斯尼科夫表示,这类组织在俄罗斯政治和社会中扮演的角色,已变得和纳粹政权曾利用过的组织十分类似。在纳粹统治早期,那些组织被用来恐吓和迫害反对者。Mr Kasyanov said: “The government has to stop encouraging this propaganda, this language of traitors and the Fifth Column. If they don’t, things will become even more dangerous. It will be open season.”卡西亚诺夫表示:“政府必须停止对这种宣传方式、对‘叛徒’和‘第五纵队’这类措辞方式的纵容。否则,事态将变得越发危险。各种攻讦言论将肆意横流。”来 /201503/363283

In the first three months of this year, some 25,000 people, mostly from the persecuted Rohingya Muslim minority, left the Bay of Bengal by boat in search of a better life. Instead, they have suffered the most appalling treatment at the hands of ruthless smugglers and unsympathetic governments. At least 300 have died from “starvation, dehydration and beatings according to the UN. Between 6,000 and 20,000 are now adrift at sea, turned away from Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia in what one human rights campaigner likened to a sickening game of “human ping pong The situation is desperate. If action is not taken, dozens or possibly hundreds of people could die.今年个月,约.5万人——大多是受到迫害的穆斯林罗兴Rohingya)少数民族——乘船离开孟加拉湾,以寻求改善生活状况。然而,他们却遭到了残忍的走私犯和一些无情的政府最骇人听闻的对待。联合国(UN)称,至少00人死于“饥饿、脱水和毒打”。现在还000到两万人相继被泰囀?马来西亚和印度尼西亚拒绝入境,不得不继续在海上漂流,一位人权活动人士将这种相互推诿比作一场令人作呕的“人类乒乓球”比赛。形势极为严峻。如果不采取行动,数十人乃至数百人可能都会面临死亡。This is a tragedy in three acts. Many of the refugees bound for Malaysia are either from the western Rakhine state of Myanmar or from refugee camps in Bangladesh. The Rohingya, many who have been in Myanmar for generations, are effectively stateless. Ironically, as Myanmar’s military boot has lifted, anti-Rohingya sentiment has stiffened among the majority Buddhist population. The Rohingya, referred to dismissively as “Bengalis are popularly considered foreign interlopers with an alien religion and a high propensity to breed. In 2012, mobs killed at least 170 and drove some 140,000 into desperately ill-provisioned camps. As hope fades, the incentive to flee rises.这是一场三幕悲剧。这些前往马来西亚的难民,很多都来自缅甸若开Rakhine)西部或者孟加拉国的难民营。尽管许多罗兴亚人已经在缅甸生活了好几代,但罗兴亚人事实上是没有国籍的。讽刺的是,随着缅甸告别军政府统治,占人口多数的佛教徒中的反罗兴亚情绪更为高涨。罗辛亚人被轻蔑地称为“孟加拉人”,缅甸当地人普遍视他们为从外国闯入、倾向于生育更多孩子的异教徒012年,暴民杀害了至少170人,并使14万人被迫居住于供给极为不足的难民营。随着希望逐渐破灭,罗兴亚人外逃的动机也不断增强。The second act is carried out by human traffickers. Many refugees are imprisoned in “ransom for releasecamps in Thailand. Those who cannot pay may be beaten, raped or left to starve. Belatedly Thai authorities have cracked down after finding a mass grave in one of the camps. Smugglers, who can no longer store their human cargo in Thailand, have cut their boats loose at sea. Act three is what happens when those boats try to make landfall in Malaysia, Thailand or Indonesia. All three countries have pushed them away. In the short term, the focus should be on those in immediate peril. The three countries concerned must urgently mount rescue operations and bring the migrants safely to shore. Aid organisations can then take care of their pressing needs while a longer-term solution is found for those who can prove they are political refugees.第二幕是由人贩子导演的。许多难民被关押在泰国“拿赎金放人”的营地。那些无法付赎金的人可能遭到毒打、强奸或者被活活饿死。泰国当局迟迟未采取措施,直到在其中一个营地发现集体坟墓后才对此类行为进行了打击。无法再把人扣留在泰国的走私犯便任船只在海上漂流。第三幕悲剧是那些试图在马来西亚、泰国或者印度尼西亚登陆的船只遭遇的事情。这三个国家都拒绝让这些船只上岸。短期来看,我们应重点关注那些现在就身处危险之中的人。上述三国必须紧急展开救援行动,将这些移民安全带到岸上。之后援助组织可着手解决他们的紧要需求,与此同时对那些能明自己是政治难民的人,也有长远的解决方法。The only lasting solution to the mass exodus is to be found in Myanmar itself. Rohingya are leaving in droves because they see no future. This is probably the point. Authorities may hope that, if conditions are bad enough, Rohingya will simply leave. One organisation called the strategy a “soft elimination Myanmar’s political leaders should reverse course. Authorities should regularise the Rohingya’s status, made even more precarious after temporary identity cards expired at the end of March. Ideally that would mean full citizenship for most. In the interim, authorities could issue residency cards that allow freedom of movement. If Rohingya can start making a living and send their children to school they may conclude they have a future in Myanmar after all.大规模难民外逃的唯一长久解决之道需要从缅甸自己身上寻找。罗兴亚人大批离开,是因为他们看不到未来。这或许就是问题的关键。当权者可能寄望于,如果状况足够糟糕,罗兴亚人就只能离开。一个组织将这种策略称为“软性消灭”。缅甸的政治领袖应转变策略。自3月底临时身份过期后,罗兴亚人的处境已变得更加危险,缅甸当局应让罗兴亚人的身份合法化。在理想情况下,这将意味着赋予大多数罗兴亚人正式的公民身份。在过渡时期,当局可以发放允许持有者自由流动的居留卡。如果罗兴亚人能够谋生,能够送子女去上学,他们或许会认为自己在缅甸还是有未来的。The international community can play a role. Myanmar must be made to understand it cannot persecute a minority with impunity. There should be a cost in terms of how quickly or whether remaining sanctions are dismantled. Fellow governments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations can probably play the biggest role of all. It was their softly-softly approach that nudged Myanmar out of its military isolationism in the first place. Malaysia and Indonesia, both Muslim-majority countries, have a particular duty to persuade Myanmar that its anti-Rohingya policies are unacceptable. Only if official persecution stops will some good have come from this tragedy.国际社会可以在其中发挥作用。国际社会必须让缅甸知道,迫害一个少数民族不可能不受惩罚。应该让缅甸为这种行为付出代价,这种代价体现为多快解除对缅甸的制裁,抑或是否解除制裁。在各方中,东盟(ASEAN)十国中其他国家的政府或可发挥最大作用。追根溯源,正是这些政府细致耐心的策略一点点推动缅甸走出了军事孤立主义。马来西亚和印度尼西亚的人口都以穆斯林为主,这两个国家尤其有义务说缅甸相信其反罗兴亚政策是不可接受的。只有官方停止迫害罗兴亚人,这场悲剧的发生才可以说有些意义。来 /201505/376325

WASHINGTON A flurry of last-minute deal-making on the Senate floor Thursday rescued President Barack Obamas ambitious trade agenda from defeat, breaking a filibuster to advance legislation that would empower the president to complete a sweeping, 12-nation Pacific trade accord.华盛顿——周四,参议院在最后时刻进行了一系列交易,打破了阻止法案推进的冗长演说拖延战术,使得贝拉克·奥巴马总统雄心勃勃的贸易议程免于失败。该法案将授权总统完成一个覆盖太平洋地区12国的一揽子贸易协定。For the second time this month, Democratic opponents nearly brought down a carefully brokered deal to give the president authority to complete a trade accord spanning the Pacific and encompassing 40 percent of the worlds economy on products ranging from airplanes to running shoes.这是民主党内的反对者本月第二次差点推翻精心安排的交易。这样的交易将授权总统完成一项跨越太平洋并涵0%的世界经济产出的贸易协定,其中涉及的产品大至飞机,小至跑鞋。But with the legislation seemingly headed to defeat, Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the majority leader, began deal-making, primarily to persuade enough Democrats to support the measure. He agreed to bring an extension of the Export-Import Bank to a vote before its authorization lapses June 30, and he promised Ohios senators a vote on an amendment to aid the embattled steel industry.然而,在该法案看似即将走向失败之际,参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈Mitch McConnell)开始做交易,主要是为了说足够的民主党人予以持。他同意在美国进出口(Export-Import Bank)的许可于60日到期之前进行延期问题的投票,并向来自俄亥俄州的参议员承诺,会让旨在扶持陷入困境的钢铁行业的一项修正案得以表决。Those deals brought along 62 senators, just above the 60-vote threshold to keep the trade bill from falling to a filibuster.这些交易争取到了62名参议员的持,刚刚超过让该贸易法案避免拖延战术所需0票门槛。“I want to thank the bipartisan group of senators who took a big step forward this morning on a trade agenda that is consistent with strong labor standards, strong environmental standards, and access to markets that too often are closed even as these other countries are selling goods in the ed States,Obama told reporters at the White House.“我想感谢这些来自两党的参议员。他们今天上午在贸易议程上向前迈了一大步。这一议程符合严格的劳工和环境标准。此外,有些国家正在向美国销售商品,与此同时它们的市场却往往是关闭的。这一议程将能让我们进入这些市场,”奥巴马在白宫对记者说。The fate of the trade promotion bill remains in doubt. The Senate must still vote on a series of amendments some highly contentious before a final vote on the trade legislation, probably on Friday. If, as is now likely, it passes the Senate, it faces strong, bipartisan opposition in the House.然而,这项贸易促进权法案依然前途未卜。在对该法案进行最终表决之前,参议院必须对一系列修正案进行投票,其中一些极具争议,而投票时间大概就在周五。目前看来,法案很可能会在参议院获得通过。即便如此,它也将在众议院面临来自两党的强烈反对。“We understand weve got work to do,said Rep. Ron Kind, D-Wis., who is leading efforts to round up Democratic votes for trade promotion authority in the House.“我们明白还需要做工作,”来自威斯康星州的民主党众议员罗恩·金Ron Kind)说。他正牵头进行努力,意在争取众议院的民主党人持赋予总统贸易促进权。Still, Thursdays vote was a high and difficult hurdle. It clearly established trade negotiating authority has the votes it needs in the Senate, and it vindicated the strategy of McConnell, who strictly limited the number of amendments to the trade bill.不过,周四的表决结果依然跨越了高难度的障碍。它清楚地实了贸易谈判授权在参议院拥有所需的持票数,也明了麦康奈尔的战略是正确的——他此前严格限制了该贸易法案的修正案数量。来 /201505/376859


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