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连云港市国泰医院预约电话墟沟海州湾连云连岛板桥徐圩朝阳街道不孕不育哪家医院最好的Will Donald Trump benefit the enraged white working class that brought him into the White House? To answer this, one must examine his plans and the desires of congressional Republicans. 唐纳特朗Donald Trump)会造福将他送入白宫的愤怒的白人劳动阶层吗?若要回答这个问题,必须考察一下他的计划和共和党国会议员的意愿。One must also consider how these plans might affect the world economy. 还必须考虑这些计划可能如何影响世界经济。The conclusion is straightforward: some people will indeed benefit but the white working class will not be among them. 结论很简单:有些人确实会受益,但白人劳动阶层不在其列。Republicans have long stoked rage they do not assuage. 长期以来,共和党人一直在煽动愤怒,却没有做什么来平息他们煽动起来的怒火。Mr Trump has taken this approach in new directions.特朗普用新的方式延续了这一传统。Huge, permanent and regressive tax cuts seem the one certainty. 大幅度、永久性和累退式的减税似乎是确定要发生的。It is something on which Mr Trump and congressional Republicans agree. 特朗普和共和党国会议员在这方面达成了共识。The revised Trump plan would reduce the top individual income tax rate to 33 per cent and the corporate tax rate to 15 per cent. 特朗普修改后的计划,将会把最高一档个人所得税率降3%,将公司税率降至15%。It would also eliminate the estate tax. 它也将废除遗产税。The highest-income taxpayers 0.1 per cent of the population, those with incomes over .7m in 2016 dollars would receive an average cut of more than 14 per cent of after-tax income. 最高收入纳税人——占总人口的0.1%016年收入超70万美元的那些人——所获的平均减税幅度将超过其税后收入4%。The poorest fifth’s taxes would fall by an average of 0.8 per cent of taxed income. 最贫穷的五分之一人口所获平均减税幅度,将为其税后收入的0.8%。To those who hath, it shall be given.凡有的,还要加给他。Mr Trump (much less so the congressional Republicans) plans to increase infrastructure spending. 特朗普计划增加基础设施出(共和党国会议员这样做的意愿低得多)。This is desirable, though it would have made even more sense if Republicans had supported such a programme in the midst of the Great Recession. 这是可取的,不过,要是共和党人在大衰退(Great Recession)期间曾持这样的计划,那会更合理。But as noted by Lawrence Summers, former US Treasury secretary, the Trump plan relies mainly on private investment. 但正如美国前财长劳伦萨默Lawrence Summers)所说,特朗普的计划主要依靠私人投资。Experience elsewhere suggests this often leads to exploitation of taxpayers and a failure to put into effect public investments that deliver high social benefits but have limited commercial returns.其他地区的经验表明,这往往导致对纳税人的剥削,并让创造很高社会效益但商业回报有限的公共投资无法实现。The net effect of these plans would be a large rise in fiscal deficits. 这些计划的最终后果将是财政赤字的大幅增加。Calculations by the Tax Policy Center at the Brookings think-tank suggest that by 2020 the deficit would increase by 3 per cent of gross domestic product. 智库布鲁金斯学会(Brookings)税收政策中心(Tax Policy Center)的测算表明,020年,赤字增幅将相当于国内生产总GDP)%。With current forecasts as the baseline and ignoring any additional spending, this would mean a deficit of around 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2020. 以目前预测为起点,并忽略任何额外出,这意味着020年赤字将相当于GDP.5%左右。Cumulatively, the increase in federal debt by 2026 might be 25 per cent of GDP.累计下来,到2026年联邦债务的增加额或许将相当于GDP5%。Congressional Republicans such as Paul Ryan would surely demand matching cuts in spending. 保罗.瑞安(Paul Ryan)等共和党国会议员,肯定会要求以同等程度削减出。Annual federal outlays are close to 20 per cent of GDP. 年度联邦出接近GDP0%。Spending on health, income support, social security, defence and net interest absorbed 88 per cent of this in 2015. 015年,医疗、收入补助、社会保障、国防和净利息出占到总出的88%。Elimination of spending on all else (a catastrophic mistake) would merely halve the prospective deficit. 取消所有其他出(一个灾难性的错误)仅仅将令预期赤字减半。In sum, the plan’s logic leads towards either big increases in federal debt relative to GDP or sharp cuts in spending on programmes on which Mr Trump’s supporters depend.总而言之,依照逻辑推断,特朗普的计划要么会导致联邦债务相对于GDP的比例大幅增长,要么会导致特朗普的持者们所依赖的种种计划的开遭到大幅削减。The envisaged rise in US fiscal deficits would however be expansionary, even though the concentration of the cuts on the wealthiest would limit this effect. 然而,美国财政赤字预计中的上升将有助于经济扩张,尽管减税主要针对最富裕人群将削弱这一效果。Still, a jump in US fiscal deficits would accelerate rises in US short-term interest rates. 然而,美国财政赤字猛增将加速美国短期利率的上升。Mr Trump could hardly complain since he has attacked the Federal Reserve’s low rates. 特朗普很难抱怨什么,因为他一直抨击美联储的低利率。Yet, as Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute notes, the world economy is fragile. 然而,正如美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的德斯蒙拉赫Desmond Lachman)所说,世界经济是脆弱的。A swift rise in US interest rates might destabilise it.美国利率的迅速上升可能会破坏世界经济稳定。Furthermore, the combination of fiscal loosening with monetary tightening would mean a stronger dollar and a rising current account deficit in the medium term. 此外,宽财政与紧货币相结合意味着,中期内美元会走强,经常账户赤字会上升。The US would re-emerge as the global buyer of last resort, so helping the world’s structural mercantilists: China, Germany and Japan. 美国将重新成为全球最后购买人,从而有利于世界上的结构性重商主义国家:中国、德国和日本。A strong dollar and rising external deficits would, as in the early 1980s, increase protectionist pressures Ronald Reagan’s administration was quite protectionist in its first term. 正如20世纪80年代初那样,强势的美元和不断攀升的外部赤字会增加实行贸易保护主义的压力——头一届罗纳德.里根(Ronald Reagan)政府的保护主义倾向就相当强烈。The decision to launch the Uruguay round of multilateral trade negotiations to liberalise world trade was then the response. 当时的回应是,决定启动乌拉圭回合多边贸易谈判、以推动世界贸易自由化。This time, however, a strong dollar would reinforce the bias towards protectionism of the Trump administration. 然而,这一次,强势美元将强化特朗普政府对保护主义的偏好。But protection against imports would raise the currency’s value further, shifting the adjustment on to unprotected sectors above all, on to competitive exporters. 但不利于进口的保护主义措施将进一步推高美元汇率,将调整传递到不受保护的部门那里——尤其是有竞争力的出口商那里。In all, a strong dollar must weaken the manufacturing Mr Trump seeks to help.总而言之,强势美元肯定会削弱特朗普试图帮助的制造业。A likely response would be to cajole the Fed into slowing monetary tightening. 一个可能的对策将是劝诱美联储放慢货币紧缩进程。Janet Yellen’s term as Fed chair expires in 2018. 珍妮耶伦(Janet Yellen)的美联储主席任期将于2018年届满。Her successor could be told that the 4 per cent growth mentioned by Mr Trump has to be attained. 她的继任者可能被告知,特朗普提出%的增长率必须实现。The last time such growth was achieved over a five-year period was before the crash of 2000 an ominous warning. 上一次持续五年实现这样的增长率,发生000年崩盘之前——这是一个不祥的警告。If the Fed tried to achieve this goal, it might trigger inflation, financial instability or, more likely, both. 如果美联储试图实现这一目标,或许会引发通货膨胀、金融不稳定,或者更可能的是,同时引发这两种情况。In all this there seem to be few, if any, gains for Mr Trump’s working-class supporters.这一切,似乎都对特朗普的劳动阶层持者们好处不大、甚至毫无好处。The president-elect has also promised to eliminate Obamacare and most environmental and financial regulations. 这位当选总统还承诺废除奥巴马医改(Obamacare)和大多数环保和金融法规。It is hard to believe any of this would succour the prospects of the working class. 很难相信这些措施的任何一个会改善劳动阶层的前景。They are more likely to suffer from even worse health cover, a dirtier environment, more predatory behaviour by financial institutions and, at worst, even another financial crisis. 他们更有可能会面对更糟的健康保障、更脏的环境、行为更肆无忌惮的金融机构,在最坏情况下,甚至是另一场金融危机。Protectionism, too, will fail to help most of his supporters . 保护主义也将无法帮助特朗普的大多数持者。Many depend on cheap imported goods. 他们中许多人依靠低价的进口商品过活。Many would be badly hurt by the dire results of a tit-for-tat global trade war. 一场相互报复的全球贸易战将造成可怕后果,这些后果将对许多人造成严重伤害。Meanwhile, rapidly rising productivity would still ensure a steady fall in the share of manufacturing in US employment, despite protection.同时,尽管有保护措施,但生产率的迅速提高仍将导致制造业就业人数在美国就业总人口中的占比稳步下降。Mr Trump promises a burst of infrastructure spending, regressive tax cuts, protectionism, cuts in federal spending and radical deregulation. 特朗普承诺了如下东西:基础设施出大幅增加、累退式减税、保护主义、联邦出削减、大幅去监管。A big rise in infrastructure spending would indeed help construction workers. 基础设施出的大幅增加确实将有利于建筑工人。But little else in these plans would help the working class. 但是这些计划中的其他部分对劳动阶层没什么帮助。Overall, his plans might indeed generate a brief economic surge. 总的来说,他的计划确实可能带来短暂的经济爆发。But the longer-term consequences are likely to be grim, not least for his angry, but fooled, supporters. 但长期后果可能是严峻的,尤其是对于他那些愤怒、但被愚弄的持者而言。Next time, they might be even angrier. 下一次,他们可能还会变得更加愤怒。Where that might lead is terrifying.那可能会导致什么后果,让人不敢想象。来 /201611/478977连云港市海州区妇幼保健所妇科人流 海州幸福路朐阳洪门街道治疗脱肛多少钱

江苏省连云港治疗附件炎哪家医院最好的Ruth Bader Ginsburg Expresses Regret for Criticizing Trump金斯伯格称后悔批评特朗普WASHINGTON Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the Supreme Court on Thursday expressed regret for her recent remarks about the candidacy of Donald Trump, saying they were “ill-advised.”华盛顿——周四,美国最高法院大法官鲁思·巴德尔·金斯伯格(Ruth Bader Ginsburg)对自己最近针对唐纳德·特朗Donald Trump)的竞选资质发表的言论表示后悔,称它们“有欠考虑”。Earlier this week, Ginsburg called Trump “a fakerwho “really has an egoand said he had been treated too gently by the press. Trump, she said, “says whatever comes into his head at the momentand has no consistency in his thinking. She also made critical remarks in interviews with The New York Times and The Associated Press.本周早些时候,金斯伯格称特朗普是“一个骗子”,“的确非常自负”,还说媒体对他的态度太过温和。她认为,特朗普“脑子里当时冒出什么就说什么”,想法前后不一。在接受《纽约时报》和美联The Associated Press)采访时,她也发表了一些批评性的。“On reflection, my recent remarks in response to press inquiries were ill-advised and I regret making them,Ginsburg said in a statement Thursday. “Judges should avoid commenting on a candidate for public office. In the future I will be more circumspect.”“回想起来,我近期应对媒体提问时发表的言论有些考虑不周,我为自己讲了这些话感到后悔,”金斯伯格在周四发布的声明中表示。“法官应该避免对竞选公职的候选人做出评价。未来我会更加谨慎。”The brief statement was a rare, public admission of fault by a member of the Supreme Court, an institution which jealously guards its traditions and almost never acknowledges missteps in the conduct of the justices.这份简短的声明非常罕见,显示出最高法院的一名成员公开承认自己有过失。该机构一直小心地维护自身的传统,几乎从不承认大法官的行为有任何不当之处。It also came at a dramatic moment in the presidential campaign, with Trump preparing to name his vice-presidential pick Friday and then, next week, formally accept the Republican party’s nomination. The clash between a presidential candidate and a sitting Supreme Court justice is certain to further roil an aly raucous campaign.此事也发生在总统竞选中一个颇具戏剧性的时刻:特朗普将在周五宣布自己的副总统人选(法国尼斯袭击事件发生后,特朗普宣布将推迟公布竞选伙伴。——编注),下周他将正式接受共和党的总统提名。一名总统候选人和一名在任最高法院大法官之间的冲突,无疑会进一步搅动这场本就充满喧闹的竞选。Trump had lashed back at the justice in recent days, and she was also criticized in editorials and by legal ethics experts.最近几天,特朗普对金斯伯格进行了回击,多家媒体发表社论对她进行指责,一些法律伦理专家也表示了批评。“I think it’s highly inappropriate that a ed States Supreme Court judge gets involved in a political campaign, frankly,Trump said in a telephone interview with The Times on Tuesday. “I think it’s a disgrace to the court, and I think she should apologize to the court. I couldn’t believe it when I saw it.”“坦率地讲,我认为联邦最高法院大法官卷入政治竞选是极为不妥的,”特朗普周二在电话中接受时报采访时说。“我觉得这是让最高法院蒙羞的行为,我认为她应该向法院道歉。当时看到那些言论,我都无法相信是真的。”Few legal experts had expected Ginsburg to offer the apology that Trump demanded. Justices typically remain largely out of the public eye and are insulated from political pressures and news media coverage that can compel action.鲜有法律专家预料到金斯伯格会对特朗普的道歉要求做出反应。大法官一贯避开公众视野,与有可能带来强迫行为的政治压力和新闻报道绝缘。But the torrent of criticism, especially from supporters and allies of Ginsburg, appears to have pierced that protection.不过,这一轮势头强劲的指责,尤其是来自金斯伯格持者与盟友的批评,似乎刺穿了这个保护层。Former Justice Antonin Scalia, who died this year, was often the target of demands for apologies for his acerbic comments from the bench or in speeches. They generally did not materialize.在今年去世之前,前任大法官安东宁·斯卡利亚(Antonin Scalia)常常因自己在法庭或演讲中的尖刻言论而被要求道歉。这些要求通常不会实现。来 /201607/454775海州区治疗混合痔多少钱 连云港云港医院割痔疮价格

赣马班庄城头城西宋庄沙河墩尚镇治疗结肠炎多少钱South Koreas Yonhap news agency says it has learned from intelligence sources that North Korea has recently ordered the adult children of its overseas diplomats to return home.韩联社说,它从情报来源处获悉,朝鲜最近下令其所有海外外交官的成年子女回囀?The sources say officials with South Koreas spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, told a parliamentary oversight committee in a closed door session that Pyongyang issued the return order for all diplomats children 25 years old and older , as part of an apparent effort to stop potential defections.消息人士说,韩国情报机构“国家情报院”的官员在一个闭门会议上对一个国会监督委员会说,平壤颁布了一道命令,要求所有年龄在25岁及以上的外交官子女回国,很明显这是为了阻止有可能出现的叛逃的措施之一。But a parliamentary source told Yonhap it is believed the order did not directly cause the recent defection of Thae Yong Ho, North Koreas second ranking official in Britain. The source says it is likely that Thae ;had been seeking a chance to leave for some time.;但是,韩国国会的一位消息人士告诉韩联社,据信该命令没有直接导致韩国驻英国大使馆二号人物太勇浩的投诚。该消息人士认为,太勇浩很可能“伺机离开已经有一段时间了”。来 /201608/462364 Nine days after North Korea’s latest nuclear test, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry Sunday expressed a continued willingness to try to revive dialogue with Pyongyang if it freezes its atomic weapons and ballistic weapons development programs.朝鲜进行最近一次核试验九天后,美国国务卿克里星期日表示,如果平壤冻结核武器和弹道导弹发展项目,美国依然愿意努力恢复与朝鲜的对话。A multi-national forum intended to denuclearize the Korean peninsula was set up in 2003, but the parties (both Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the ed States) have not met since December 2008, when talks stalled over verification issues.这个多国对话机制论坛成立003年,包括朝鲜、韩囀?中囀?日本、俄罗斯和美国,目的是实现朝鲜半岛非核化,但是从20082月以来,六方会谈就没有再开过会。当时阻碍会谈的原因是核查朝鲜核项目的问题无法得到解决。Analysts, reviewing open source satellite imagery, say the impoverished country may have completed preparations for three more nuclear tests that could occur at any time.分析人士在研究了朝鲜卫星图像之后表示,朝鲜可能已经完成了下面三次核试验的准备工作。新的核试验随时都会开始。South Korea’s foreign minister, Yu Byung-se, appeared in no mood Sunday to consider negotiations with his country’s arch-rival, in view of Pyongyang’s repeated defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions and sanctions.鉴于平壤屡次蔑视联合国安理会的决议和制裁,韩国外交部长尹炳世星期天似乎不愿意考虑与朝鲜官员恢复谈判。Yun called for the current U.N. General Assembly to “send out a united and forceful message,and impose even more robust sanctions on North Korea as it is “now at the final stage of nuclear weaponization.”尹炳世要求联合国大会发出“一个一致而有力的信息”,在朝鲜进入核武化的最后阶段对它采取更为有力的制裁。Yu warned that Pyongyang’s weapons are a “looming perfect storm that may not only pounce on Northeast Asia but sweep over the entire world.”尹炳世警告说,平壤的核武器是一个“正在形成的巨大风暴,它可能不只扑向东北亚,也可能横扫全世界。”来 /201609/467276连云港市妇保医院人流收费标准连云港人流医院哪家可靠



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